PECOTA Robots Still Skeptical of Marlins

Monday, February 1, 2010

Since it is only the beginning of February, we are forced to look at early 2010 season projections to get our fill of baseball these days (what with the hot stove cooling off and all). So last week I and so many others were excited to see that Baseball Prospectus had released its findings. And as was the case last year, PECOTA has low expectations for the Fish, having them finish 76-86, in 5th place of a surprisingly balanced NL East (View the whole standings here).

For what it's worth, I'm not worried about the
projections this year. The Marlins are returning nearly the entire team that was in the Wild Card race until September, only this year we won't see Emilio Bonifacio in the starting lineup for a tortuously extended period. So it is certainly not out of the realm of possibility for the team to win 90 games, which would most likely be all it takes to grab an NL playoff spot. As 310ToJoba put it at WOW this weekend,

I think PECOTA does a fine job of predicting individual players, but, if you think about it, the team records are based on the performance of these same projected players, which would be nice if the PECOOTERS functioned in a vacuum.
Projections are of limited utility, but if we did not have them around to ponder during the lead-up to Spring Training, then what else would we do? Watch hockey?

UPDATE: The latest revised projections (as of 2/13) have the Marlins finishing 82-80 and in third place behind the Phillies an Braves.


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